Overview
Effective fulfillment relies on thorough preparation, and at MasonHub, we understand the importance of being well-prepared to ship orders efficiently and swiftly. Among the many steps our team takes daily, there is one significant step that requires your input and plays a vital role in our preparedness: submitting volume forecasts.
Each month, we request that you provide us with a volume forecast for each facility, outlining your anticipated order volume for the upcoming month. This forecast serves as an opportunity for your team to communicate crucial information to MasonHub. It allows you to share any updates regarding new products, kitting requirements, special handling requests, inbound deliveries, and outbound volume projections. By receiving this valuable information from all our clients, along with our own historical data, we can accurately assess the expected volume for each workcenter.
Understanding these projected volumes enables us to make informed decisions about staffing our work centers on a day-to-day basis. It directly influences how we allocate our resources, ensuring that we have the appropriate staff and equipment in place to meet the demands of your business. By providing us with your volume forecasts, you contribute to the optimization of our operational efficiency, enabling us to fulfill orders effectively and maintain a high level of customer satisfaction.
How to Submit a Forecast
Step 1: Use the Client Forecast Template.xlsx to log your forecasts for the upcoming month.
Step 2: Submit the completed volume forecast to your Account Manager on or before the 15th of each month.
How are Forecasts Determined
A lot of forecasting, especially for orders, is based on historical data. If you are a new business or have new products this data may not be available yet, but there are steps you can take to develop a thoughtful forecast.
E-commerce Order Volume
For orders, start with looking at your monthly order volume over the last few months and take into consideration these details:
- By what percent has my order volume increased month by month? If this has been a consistent increase it is reasonable to assume a similar increase the following month.
- Are there any sales or promotions planned? If there are sales or promotions planned the volume may be higher than normal. The volume increase may be specific to a set of days so be sure to share sale dates with your forecast.
- Are there any backorders or presales with an incoming ASN? If we are expecting a delivery for pending backorders or presales, the orders will drop when the inventory is received resulting in a jump in order volume.
Wholesale Order Volume
Collaborating with your retail partner to provide wholesale order volume forecasts is essential for effective planning and inventory management. Here are some ways you can work together:
- Regular Communication: Maintain open lines of communication with your retail partner with regular meetings or calls to discuss upcoming promotions, marketing campaigns, and any changes that may impact order volumes. Sharing this information in advance, enables your retail partner to anticipate demand and adjust their inventory levels accordingly.
- Historical Data Sharing: Provide your retail partner with historical sales data, particularly for seasonal products or promotional periods. Sharing this information helps them analyze trends and make accurate volume forecasts for future orders
- Forecast Accuracy Improvement: Work together to continuously improve the accuracy of your volume forecasts. Conduct regular reviews to assess the forecast accuracy against actual sales and identify factors that may have contributed to deviations. By adjusting your forecasting methodologies, you can refine your future volume forecasts, benefiting both your business and your retail partner.
- Collaborative Forecasting Tools: Explore the possibility of using collaborative forecasting tools or shared platforms that allow real-time visibility into inventory levels and sales data. These tools enable both parties to assess and analyze information simultaneously, facilitating better coordination and decision-making when it comes to volume forecasting and inventory planning.
ASNs
Pinpointing exactly when an inbound shipment will be delivered to MasonHub can be challenging, but there is still plenty of information that helps us to be prepared. Think through the following points when anticipating inbound ASN volume:
- What am I expecting to be delivered during the month?
- Assuming no delays, what would be expected each week?
- Are there any backorders, presales, kitting or other projects pending this receipt.
Kitting and Other Special Requests
Communicating any other projects you are anticipating allows your Account Manager to start preparing and proactively answering any questions they anticipate. Additionally knowing how your projects are relating to orders and incoming ASNs allows us to be strategic in planning projects across multiple work centers.
MasonHub's Data
MasonHub is constantly working on collecting data to streamline operations and highlight trends. The internal data is used in conjunction with the account provided forecast to make informed decisions on expected daily volume and staffing needs.
Once the data is reviewed and forecasts established, your Account Manager will communicate the daily forecast breakdown with you. The forecast you are presented may vary, under or over, in comparison to the forecast you submitted. These variances are attributed to the combination of your forecast and MasonHub’s. The final forecast must be agreed upon by both parties.
Failure to Submit a Forecast
If forecasts are received after the designated deadline or not provided, it may result in penalties affecting your Service Level Agreements (SLAs). Specifically, SLAs will not be applicable for the days impacted by a late forecast submission or entire months when no forecast is submitted. This means that we won't be able to guarantee specific service levels during those periods.
To ensure operational success, MasonHub requires you to provide your forecast on time and indicate when sales are scheduled, so we can plan our resources accordingly to meet the incoming demand. Our team will notify you if we believe your forecast is either over or under based on historical trend data and work with you to align on the final forecast.
Late Forecast Submission
MasonHub requires forecasts be submitted on or before the 15th of each month to allow a two-week window for data review and staffing. It's important to note that forecasts submitted after the 15th will have a two-week delay before they become applicable.
In practical terms, if your forecast is submitted late, for each day beyond the 15th, there will be a corresponding day in the following month where your standard Service Level Agreement (SLA) will not apply. However, rest assured that two weeks after the day your forecast is submitted, your standard SLA will be applicable again.
No Forecast Submission
MasonHub will rely on their own volume forecast data for any month that an account does not submit a forecast. During that time, MasonHub is not accountable for any Service Level Agreements specific to the missing forecast.
Inaccurate Forecasts
In most cases,combining your data with MasonHub's expertise provides accurate forecasts. However, unforeseen peaks and dips can arise, resulting in volume deviations from the planned forecast. When such situations occur, appropriate action will be taken to address them effectively.
Under Forecasted
MasonHub's team closely monitors your order volume compared to the forecast, particularly during promotional or sale periods. If the volume trends below the forecast for 2 or more days, we will adjust the forecasted volume and align our staffing accordingly. Your Account Manager will keep you informed about these adjustments and ensure clear communication.
Over Forecasted
In the event that the agreed-upon forecast is lower than the actual daily order volume, MasonHub's team will make every effort to fulfill as many orders as possible. However, if the volume exceeds the forecast and results in a backlog of orders, you will have two options to handle the surplus volume:
- Approve Overtime Fees: With your approval, MasonHub will extend working hours to clear the backlog and fulfill your orders promptly. Please note that overtime fees will be billed in addition to your standard fulfillment fees, reflecting the additional resources and efforts required.
- Develop a Recovery Plan: Your account manager will collaborate with you and our operations team to develop a tailored plan to address the backlog effectively. During this recovery period, your standard Service Level Agreement (SLA) will not be applicable to the backlogged orders. The duration of the recovery will vary based on the volume overage and specific circumstances, but we will work diligently to minimize any disruptions to your business.